Correlation Between Summer and Winter Climates

Written by: Caroline Kim

May 15, 2022

Does winter climate affect the climate of the following summer? What about the climate of the winter following a specific summer? For example, might a freezing winter indicate a very hot, intensive summer? This week, we’ll be discussing the correlation between seasons.

A study on Illinois and Iowa over the period 1960-2011 showed a slight positive correlation between winter temperatures and the following summer temperatures (Irwin). In other words, a warmer winter indicated a warmer summer, though the relationship was fairly weak (0.15). Additionally, with global warming becoming more relevant in modern day society, it seems quite reasonable for a warmer winter to indicate a warmer summer (Haby). On the flip side, some may argue that warmer winters don’t necessarily indicate warmer summers due to the volatile weather patterns (Haby).

Naturally, there are also speculations on how summer climates affect the following winter’s climate. Some suggest that cold winters are a result of warmer autumns, which might cause abnormal weather patterns. Additionally, the strongest winter cooling trends were observed in the eastern United States, southern Canada and much of northern Eurasia; research shows that there was significant warming throughout the summer and early fall in the Arctic (Staff). This warming would cause melting sea ice, moisture retention in the atmosphere, and promote precipitation, which would fall as snow when enough (Staff). Overall, I think all sides of the argument are laudable, but I think more research is necessary for definitive conclusions to be made .

Sources:

Irwin, S. and D. Good. "Do Warm Winters Tell Us Anything about Summer Temperatures and Corn Yields?." farmdoc daily (2):46, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, March 8, 2012.

Haby, Jeff. “A Correlation between a Warm Winter and a Hot Summer ?” IWeatherNet, 21 Dec. 2017, https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/warm-winter-mean-summer-will-hotter-normal-temperature.

Staff, Live Science. “How Warmer Summers Cause Colder Winters.” LiveScience, Purch, 13 Jan. 2012, https://www.livescience.com/17912-cold-winters-warmer-summers.html.